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Regions for case solvers: the big markets of the world
Lesson 2 of 7 Math checked Facts checked against sources on 1 October 2026 15 min

The Gulf for case solvers

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain: size, oil and diversification, citizens and foreign residents, new taxes, the 2026 war, and what they mean in a case.

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Key takeaways

  • The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are rich, small in population and built on oil and gas: together about USD 2.4 trillion of GDP and 62.6 million people in 2025.
  • Saudi Arabia: the largest market (USD 1,277 billion of GDP, 36.0 million people).
  • United Arab Emirates: a trade, travel, finance and logistics hub (USD 572 billion, 11.4 million people), with many free zones where foreign firms can usually own the whole company.
  • Saudi Arabia opened property ownership to non-Saudis under a new law that took effect on 22 January 2026.

Key idea

The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are rich, small in population and built on oil and gas: together about USD 2.4 trillion of GDP and 62.6 million people in 2025. Their governments are spending heavily to diversify, and the 2026 war in the region hit them hard. Gulf cases turn on the state as buyer and investor, the gap between citizens and foreign residents, and tax rules that are still being written.

Size and growth

The six Gulf Cooperation Council economies(see each column)
The six Gulf Cooperation Council economies
EconomyGDP 2025 (USD billions)Real growth 2025 (percent)Real growth 2026, projected (percent)GDP per person 2025 (USD)Population 2025 (millions)Inflation 2025 (percent)
Saudi Arabia1,2774.53.135,460362
United Arab Emirates5725.83.150,23011.41.3
Qatar2212.8-8.669,6803.20.6
Kuwait1583.5-0.630,8805.12.4
Oman1062.43.520,0005.31
Bahrain483.1-0.529,3401.6-0.1

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2026 (2025 values are IMF estimates; 2026 values are projections), checked 2026-10-01. GDP in current US dollars at market exchange rates. The 2026 projections were made in April 2026, after the war began; see the text for the July update.

So-what

Saudi Arabia is over half the region's GDP and population. Qatar is the richest per person and was projected to be hit hardest in 2026.

The war in the Middle East began on 28 February 2026. The IMF's April 2026 regional outlook described the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow sea passage out of the Gulf) and the disruption of oil and gas production; it expected outright contractions in 2026 in five of the eight oil exporters around the Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Its July 2026 update cut Saudi Arabia's 2026 growth forecast to 1.7 percent (5.5 percent in 2027), as a country with more export routes, and expected Kuwait and Qatar, among the most affected producers, to shrink sharply in 2026 before double-digit rebounds in 2027. It assumed the Strait would begin to reopen in mid-July 2026, with conditions broadly back to normal by March 2027. That reopening had not happened by September: the IEA's September 2026 report said more than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf output was still shut in during August, so treat the IMF path as an assumption, not an outcome.

People in the Gulf, 2025 (World Bank)(percent of population)
People in the Gulf, 2025 (World Bank)
EconomyUrban population (percent)Aged 0 to 14 (percent)Aged 65 and over (percent)
Saudi Arabia84.623.63.1
United Arab Emirates86161.8
Qatar99.4151.7
Kuwait100183.2
Oman79.524.32.7
Bahrain10018.44

Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, 2025 values, checked 2026-10-01.

So-what

Almost everyone lives in cities and very few people are old, partly because many residents are working-age foreign workers.

Structure of the economy

Oil and gas sit inside "industry" in the World Bank's figures: in Saudi Arabia industry is 43.0 percent of GDP and services 48.9 percent, with manufacturing (refining and petrochemicals among it) at 15.8 percent. State oil and gas companies, sovereign wealth funds (state investment funds) and government budgets drive much of the rest of the economy, through construction, tourism, logistics and finance.

Each state in brief

  • Saudi Arabia: the largest market (USD 1,277 billion of GDP, 36.0 million people). A national programme, Vision 2030, aims to build an economy less dependent on oil, and the Public Investment Fund (the sovereign fund) leads many of its projects. Non-Saudis were 41.6 percent of the population in the 2022 census, and unemployment among Saudi nationals was 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026. VAT is 15 percent. Regulators include the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), the Ministry of Investment and the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (ZATCA).
  • United Arab Emirates: a trade, travel, finance and logistics hub (USD 572 billion, 11.4 million people), with many free zones where foreign firms can usually own the whole company. Federal corporate tax is 9 percent on taxable income above AED 375,000, for financial years starting on or after 1 June 2023.
  • Qatar: the richest per person (about USD 69,680) and a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG); its state company, QatarEnergy, is expanding output toward 142 million tonnes a year, with the last stage expected to start producing by the end of 2031. The 2026 war disrupted its LNG operations.
  • Kuwait: an oil economy (USD 158 billion, 5.1 million people) with a large sovereign fund. It introduced a 15 percent minimum tax on large multinational groups from 1 January 2025.
  • Oman: smaller and less rich per person (about USD 20,000). It has passed a personal income tax of 5 percent for individuals with total income above OMR 42,000 a year, starting in 2028.
  • Bahrain: the smallest economy (USD 48 billion, 1.6 million people), with a long-standing banking and finance sector.

What changed in 2024 to 2026

  • The 2026 war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut oil and gas exports and output (the closure was still largely in place in September 2026), with the deepest damage in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, and a smaller hit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman.
  • Taxes spread: the UAE has had a corporate tax since 2023; the UAE and Kuwait both added a 15 percent minimum tax on large multinational groups from 2025; and Oman will tax high personal incomes from 2028.
  • Saudi Arabia opened property ownership to non-Saudis under a new law that took effect on 22 January 2026.

What this means in a case

  • The state is often the customer, the investor and the regulator at once. Sales cycles run through ministries, state companies and sovereign funds, and many contracts favour local partners and local hiring.
  • There are two consumer markets in one country: citizens and foreign residents, with very different incomes, family sizes and needs. Size them separately.
  • Model taxes and risks explicitly. Tax and ownership rules changed often between 2023 and 2026, and the 2026 war showed how much depends on one shipping route; ask about supply routes and stock levels in any Gulf operations case.
Timed math drill

A UAE company has taxable income of AED 500,000. Corporate tax is 0 percent up to AED 375,000 and 9 percent on income above that. How much corporate tax does it pay, in dirhams?

Timed math drill

The six Gulf economies had GDP of about USD 2,382 billion in 2025 (IMF), of which Saudi Arabia was USD 1,277 billion. What share of the region's GDP is Saudi Arabia, in percent?

Check your understanding

A consumer brand plans to size its market in Saudi Arabia. What should it do first about the population?

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