Oil and gas players, trends 2024 to 2026, and how to crack the cases
National oil companies, OPEC+ in neutral terms, the 2026 Gulf disruption, the energy transition, regulation basics, typical prompts, traps and drills.
Industry brief, with a one-minute summary: Oil and gasFirm processes and online tests change from year to year and differ by office. Use this to prepare, and confirm the exact current steps on the firm's own careers page.
Key takeaways
- Most oil and gas cases turn on three things: the oil price, the cost per barrel, and large capital decisions.
- Handle current events carefully: The 2026 situation changes week by week.
- Common traps: Treating the oil price as something the company controls.
Key idea
Most oil and gas cases turn on three things: the oil price, the cost per barrel, and large capital decisions. Know who the players are and what is happening to supply today, then start the case with the driver that matters most.
| Region | National oil companies | Listed international and regional companies | Services and trading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gulf | Saudi Aramco, ADNOC (UAE), QatarEnergy, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, OQ (Oman) | Partners in Gulf fields include TotalEnergies, Shell, ExxonMobil and Asian NOCs | ADNOC Drilling, regional service contractors |
| Europe | Equinor (Norway, majority state owned) | Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni | SLB, trading houses such as Vitol and Trafigura |
| Americas | Petrobras (Brazil), Pemex (Mexico) | ExxonMobil, Chevron, many shale independents | Halliburton, Baker Hughes |
| India and Asia | ONGC and Indian Oil (India), CNOOC, Sinopec and PetroChina (China), Petronas (Malaysia) | Reliance Industries (India) runs large refining | Many regional contractors |
| Africa | NNPC (Nigeria), Sonatrach (Algeria), Sonangol (Angola) | Majors and independents in Nigeria, Angola, Mozambique LNG | Regional service companies |
So-what
NOCs hold most of the world's oil reserves, so in the Gulf, India or Africa the client is often a state-owned company with national goals as well as profit goals.
Gulf NOCs are among the lowest-cost producers in the world. Saudi Aramco, for example, reported an average upstream lifting cost of about USD 3.5 per barrel of oil equivalent in its 2025 reporting. Gulf NOCs also invest downstream (refineries and chemical plants, including in China and India), in gas and LNG, and in new energy such as hydrogen and carbon capture. Their goals often include jobs for citizens, local suppliers and government revenue, not only profit. Say this when you structure a Gulf NOC case.
OPEC is a group of oil-exporting countries that coordinates production targets. OPEC+ adds other producers such as Russia and Kazakhstan. The group sets production targets to influence supply. Supporters say this reduces price swings; critics say it raises prices for importing countries. In a case, treat OPEC+ decisions as an outside factor that changes supply and prices, and do not take a side.
Trends 2024 to 2026 (checked 28 September 2026)
- Prices: Brent crude averaged about USD 81 per barrel in 2024 and about USD 69 in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In September 2026 the EIA expected an average of about USD 91 for 2026.
- OPEC+ supply: during 2025 and into 2026, eight OPEC+ countries gradually returned voluntary production cuts to the market; on 1 March 2026 they agreed to resume unwinding a further 1.65 million barrels per day, starting with 206,000 barrels per day (OPEC press release).
- On 28 April 2026 the UAE announced that it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ with effect from 1 May 2026, after 59 years of membership. The UAE said the decision followed a review of its production policy and its current and future capacity, and was based on its national interest (reported by Enerdata and by CNBC on 28 April 2026).
- Gulf disruption: from 28 February 2026, a military conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States sharply reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera). According to the IEA's Oil Market Report of 11 September 2026, more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf output remained shut in, and the IEA forecast that world oil demand would decline by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Dated Brent (the price of physical North Sea cargoes) averaged about USD 91 per barrel in August 2026 and jumped to about USD 113 on 9 September, while ICE Brent futures (contracts for later delivery) traded at about USD 105 when the report was written. These figures change week to week, so check the latest IEA report.
- LNG: QatarEnergy declared force majeure (a contract clause that excuses delivery when events are outside a company's control) on LNG deliveries after its Ras Laffan export facility was damaged in March 2026. In late September 2026 it was still cancelling some cargoes, into November and December for some buyers, and LNG prices in Europe and Asia were near their highest since late 2022 (The National, 28 September 2026).
- Energy transition: electric cars were about one in four new cars sold worldwide in 2025 (IEA Global EV Outlook 2026). This slows oil demand growth for road fuel over time, while petrochemicals and aviation keep growing.
The 2026 situation changes week by week. In an interview, say what you know, give the date of your information, and move on to the business question. Do not guess at military or political outcomes. A good line is: "Prices are volatile, so I will test the decision at a low, a middle and a high oil price."
Regulation basics
- Licensing and fiscal terms: governments award blocks and set royalties, taxes and production sharing. Terms can change, which is a key risk for long projects.
- Health, safety and environment: rules on well safety, spills, flaring (burning waste gas) and methane leaks. Many countries are tightening methane rules.
- Fuel pricing: many countries control or subsidize retail fuel prices, for example parts of the Gulf, India and Africa. A retailer's margin may be set by the government, not by the market.
- Carbon pricing: some regions charge for emissions, for example the EU Emissions Trading System, which adds cost to refineries and power plants.
- Sanctions and trade rules: some countries' oil faces sanctions, which changes who can buy it and at what discount.
Typical case prompts and how to crack them
| Prompt | Structure hint | First driver to check |
|---|---|---|
| An upstream producer's profit fell 40 percent. Why? | Profit = volume x (price after royalty minus cost per barrel) | The oil price change, then volume (uptime, decline), then cost per barrel |
| Should a Gulf NOC invest USD 5 billion in a new offshore field? | Investment case: breakeven, NPV at several prices, timing, execution risk, national goals | Full-cycle breakeven compared with a cautious oil price |
| A refinery is losing money. What should it do? | Margin tree: product basket value, crude cost, operating cost, utilization | Net margin per barrel compared with similar refineries |
| Should an oil company build a solar, hydrogen or EV charging business? | Market entry: attractiveness, ability to win, economics, fit with the energy transition | Returns of the new business compared with the core business |
| A fuel retailer in Kenya wants higher profit | Profit per station: litres per day x margin per litre, plus shop income, minus site costs | Litres per station, and whether margins are regulated |
So-what
Always say out loud which part of the value chain you are in. It tells the interviewer you know which driver matters.
Treating the oil price as something the company controls. Using lifting cost as if it were the full cost of a new barrel. Forgetting royalties and taxes, which can take half or more of the price in some countries. Ignoring decline: an oil company that stops investing shrinks every year. Mixing up a company's breakeven with a government's fiscal breakeven. Forgetting the time value of money on projects that take years to build. Taking sides on OPEC+ or on a conflict instead of treating them as outside factors.
Profitability; Investment and capital project decisions; Operations and process improvement; Capacity, supply chain, and footprint; Sustainability and decarbonization; Market entry.
A producer spent USD 540 million on running its fields last year and produced 60 million barrels of oil equivalent. What was its lifting cost, in USD per boe?
A producer sells 300,000 barrels per day and pays a royalty of 20 percent of the price. The oil price falls by USD 10 per barrel for a full year. By how much does its yearly revenue after royalty fall, in USD million?
A client says: "Our refinery in Europe made a loss this year while our upstream business made record profit." What is the best first hypothesis?
What does a full-cycle breakeven include that a cash breakeven does not?
Which part of the oil and gas chain earns mostly fees that do not depend directly on the oil price?
In a case about a national oil company in the Gulf, what should you add to a normal profit structure?
Sources for this lesson (8)
- IEA, Oil Market Report, September 2026
- US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
- OPEC, press release on the meeting of eight OPEC+ countries, 1 March 2026
- Enerdata, "The UAE announces exit from OPEC effective 1 May 2026"
- Al Jazeera, "How a 95 percent drop in Hormuz traffic changed global shipping", 27 August 2026
- The National, "Qatar extends LNG force majeure as Hormuz disruption threatens winter supply", 28 September 2026
- Saudi Aramco, 2025 full-year results
- IEA, Global EV Outlook 2026, executive summary
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