The United States for case solvers
The largest single market: size, income, sectors, the regulators and the states, the 2025 to 2026 tariff and rate changes, and what they mean in a case.
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Key takeaways
- The United States is the largest single market in the world: about USD 30.8 trillion of GDP in 2025, a quarter of the world's output, and the richest big consumer market.
- Technology, software and AI, where business investment has been strong.
- Healthcare: hospitals, insurers, medicines and devices.
- Retail and consumer goods, financial services, and energy (the country is a net energy exporter).
Key idea
The United States is the largest single market in the world: about USD 30.8 trillion of GDP in 2025, a quarter of the world's output, and the richest big consumer market. It runs mostly on home demand. Its trade and interest rate settings changed quickly in 2025 and 2026, so check the latest rules in any US case.
Size and growth
| Economy | GDP 2025 (USD billions) | Real growth 2025 (percent) | Real growth 2026, projected (percent) | GDP per person 2025 (USD) | Population 2025 (millions) | Inflation 2025 (percent) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 30,767 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 89,990 | 341.9 | 2.7 |
| World | 118,175 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 14,710 | 8,031.1 | 4.1 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2026 (2025 values are IMF estimates; 2026 values are projections), checked 2026-10-01. GDP in current US dollars at market exchange rates.
So-what
About 4 percent of the world's people produce about a quarter of its output, measured in dollars.
The IMF's July 2026 update projected US growth of 2.3 percent in 2026 and 2.2 percent in 2027, supported by government spending, easy financial conditions and business investment in technology, with only a limited hit from the war because the United States is a net energy exporter. Exports equal only 11.0 percent of GDP (World Bank, 2024), so most US companies live on home demand.
US GDP was about USD 30,767 billion in 2025 and world GDP about USD 118,175 billion (IMF). What share of the world economy is the United States, in percent?
Consumers and income
Median household income was USD 87,460 in 2025, the Census Bureau reported in September 2026. Income is spread unevenly (a Gini index of 41.8 in 2024, World Bank), so the country holds a large premium market and a large price-sensitive one. People are older than in most emerging markets but younger than in Europe or Japan: 17.1 percent are under 15 and 18.4 percent are 65 or over, and 80.2 percent live in urban areas (World Bank, 2025).
Sectors that come up
- Technology, software and AI, where business investment has been strong.
- Healthcare: hospitals, insurers, medicines and devices.
- Retail and consumer goods, financial services, and energy (the country is a net energy exporter).
The state and the regulators
- The Federal Reserve sets interest rates. The Securities and Exchange Commission oversees stock markets; the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice review mergers and competition; the Food and Drug Administration approves medicines and devices.
- The US Trade Representative leads trade policy, and the President can set some tariffs under specific laws.
- States matter: there is no national VAT, and each state sets its own sales tax, many licences and some rules, so one product can face different rules across the country.
What changed in 2024 to 2026
- Tariffs: broad tariffs set in 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were struck down by the Supreme Court on 20 February 2026; a 10 percent temporary surcharge followed from 24 February for 150 days; and from July 2026 tariffs of 10 or 12.5 percent apply to most imports from 60 economies under Section 301.
- Interest rates: the Federal Reserve cut three times in late 2025, to 3.50 to 3.75 percent, then raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on 16 September 2026 (effective 17 September), saying inflation remained elevated.
- Trade agreements: on 1 July 2026 the United States did not agree to renew the USMCA with Mexico and Canada in its current form; the agreement remains in force while talks continue.
What this means in a case
- Scale is huge but split by state: taxes, licences and rules differ, so a national launch is often 50 launches.
- Check tariff exposure by country of origin: two suppliers with the same price can have different landed costs because their countries face different tariff rates.
- Labour is costly and customers are rich: cases often turn on premium products, convenience, and automation to save labour.
Two suppliers sell the same part to a US buyer at a customs value of USD 1,000. One country faces a 12.5 percent US tariff and the other 10 percent. How much more tariff does the buyer pay per part on the first supplier, in dollars?
Why is a US national launch often harder than the size of the market suggests?
Sources for this lesson (14)
- IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2026: GDP at current prices, USD billions (IMF DataMapper, indicator NGDPD)
- IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2026: real GDP growth, annual percent change (IMF DataMapper, indicator NGDP_RPCH)
- IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026: "Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology" (Table 1 and text)
- World Bank, World Development Indicators: exports of goods and services, percent of GDP
- World Bank, World Development Indicators: urban population, percent of total (2025 values)
- World Bank, World Development Indicators: population aged 0 to 14, percent of total (2025 values)
- World Bank, World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, percent of total (2025 values)
- World Bank, World Development Indicators: Gini index (latest survey year by country)
- US Census Bureau, "Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2025", September 2026
- Federal Reserve: open market operations, changes in the federal funds target range
- Supreme Court of the United States, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287, decided February 20, 2026 (slip opinion)
- The White House, Proclamation "Imposing a Temporary Import Surcharge to Address Fundamental International Payments Problems", February 2026
- Office of the US Trade Representative, "USTR Takes Action in Forced Labor Section 301 Investigations", July 23, 2026
- Office of the US Trade Representative, "Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on the USMCA Joint Review", July 2026
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