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A bakery chain: from numbers to a storyline

You run the case. Read the prompt, answer questions from the notes below, and share data only when the candidate asks for it or gets stuck. Score at the end.

Case timer

00:00

Target length:

1. Read the prompt aloud

Read it slowly, then pause. Let the candidate ask questions before they structure.

A bakery chain in the UAE saw profit fall from AED 6 million to AED 4.4 million. Build the storyline and the one-line answer for the owner.

Format note: Revenue was flat at AED 40 million. Ingredient costs rose AED 1.2 million and delivery app commissions rose AED 0.4 million. Every other cost was flat. All figures are illustrative.

2. Answers to clarifying questions

This case has no scripted clarifying answers. Answer from the prompt, and say "assume what you think is reasonable" if the prompt does not cover it.

3. A model structure

Compare the candidate's structure with this one. A different split can be just as good if it is clean and fits the problem.

What explains the fall, and what should the owner do?
- Where things stand: profit last year and this year
- What changed: which cost lines moved, and by how much
- What to do: the price rise that would win back the biggest cause

4. The working, step by step

Each step shows how a strong candidate works it out. Share a new fact from it only when the candidate asks or is stuck, and let them do the math: the result in the dark box is what they should reach.

Step 1: Size the fall
What a strong candidate does: Profit last year minus profit this year.
Fall in profit (AED millions): 6 - 4.4 = 1.6
Step 2: Check the causes add up
What a strong candidate does: The two cost lines that moved should explain the whole fall.
Ingredients plus commissions (AED millions): 1.2 + 0.4 = 1.6
Step 3: Share of the fall from ingredients
What a strong candidate does: Ingredients as a share of the fall.
Ingredients share of the fall (percent): 1.2 ÷ 1.6 × 100 = 75
Step 4: Price rise that wins it back
What a strong candidate does: The ingredient increase as a share of revenue, if customers buy the same amount.
Price rise needed (percent): 1.2 ÷ 40 × 100 = 3

The recommendation to listen for

At the end, say: "The CEO walks in. What is your recommendation?"

Raise prices about 3 percent on the items that use the most butter and flour: ingredient costs explain AED 1.2 million, or 75 percent, of the AED 1.6 million fall in profit. Revenue was flat, so this is a cost problem, not a demand problem. The risk is that customers buy less after a price rise, so test it in a few shops for a month before rolling it out. Next, review the delivery app commissions, which explain the other AED 0.4 million.

Risks a strong answer names: Customers may buy less after the price rise, so the 3 percent assumes volumes hold.

Next steps: Test the price rise in a few shops for a month; Review the delivery app commission terms.

Score the candidate

Score each criterion from 1 to 5. A 2 or a 4 sits between the descriptions.

This case has no exhibit. Score Exhibit reading on how the candidate used the data you gave them: did they pick out the number that matters and say what it means?

Structuring

1: No clear structure, or a memorized framework that does not fit the problem.
3: A sensible structure, but with some overlap, a gap, or no clear priority.
5: A structure built for this problem, with no overlap and no gaps, a stated hypothesis, and a clear first step.

Math

1: Frequent errors, no units, or needed heavy help to finish.
3: Right answers but slow or messy working, or one error caught late.
5: Accurate and clearly narrated, with units, a sense check, and what the number means.

Exhibit reading

1: Read the chart aloud without finding the number that matters.
3: Found the key number but gave only part of the so-what.
5: Pulled the right number quickly and said what it means for the case.

Synthesis

1: Summarized what was done, with no clear answer.
3: Gave an answer, but with weak reasons or no next step.
5: Answer first, then two or three reasons with numbers, the main risk, and next steps.

Communication

1: Hard to follow: long silences, no signposting.
3: Clear most of the time, with some rambling.
5: Calm and concise, signposted each step, and checked in with the interviewer.

Total

0 out of 25

Score all five criteria to see the band and the feedback template.