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Which stage should a snack launch fix?
You run the case. Read the prompt, answer questions from the notes below, and share data only when the candidate asks for it or gets stuck. Score at the end.
Case timer
00:00
1. Read the prompt aloud
Read it slowly, then pause. Let the candidate ask questions before they structure.
Using the funnel above: the fictional brand reaches 60 percent of 3 million target households, 50 percent of those reached become aware, 40 percent of the aware consider it, 25 percent of those try it, and 30 percent of triers buy again. A trier buys 1 pack; a repeat buyer buys 10 more packs in the year. Each pack brings the brand AED 5 of contribution, and launch marketing costs AED 2.5 million. Does year one pay, and is it better to lift trial from 25 to 30 percent or repeat from 30 to 40 percent?
2. Answers to clarifying questions
This case has no scripted clarifying answers. Answer from the prompt, and say "assume what you think is reasonable" if the prompt does not cover it.
3. A model structure
Compare the candidate's structure with this one. A different split can be just as good if it is clean and fits the problem.
- Contribution = packs x AED 5; packs = triers x 1 + repeat buyers x 10
- Triers = households x reach x awareness x consideration x trial
- Key: Repeat buyers = triers x repeat rate
- Compare two fixes on contribution
4. The working, step by step
Each step shows how a strong candidate works it out. Share a new fact from it only when the candidate asks or is stuck, and let them do the math: the result in the dark box is what they should reach.
Step 1: Triers
What a strong candidate does: 3,000,000 x 0.6 x 0.5 x 0.4 x 0.25.
Triers (households): 3,000,000 × 0.6 × 0.5 × 0.4 × 0.25 = 90,000
Step 2: Repeat buyers
What a strong candidate does: 30 percent of triers.
Repeat buyers (households): 90,000 × 0.3 = 27,000
Step 3: Whole funnel
What a strong candidate does: Repeat buyers as a share of target households.
Target to repeat (percent): 27,000 ÷ 3,000,000 × 100 = 0.9
Step 4: Packs sold
What a strong candidate does: One pack per trier plus 10 per repeat buyer.
Packs sold: 90,000 × 1 + 27,000 × 10 = 360,000
Step 5: Contribution
What a strong candidate does: AED 5 a pack.
Year one contribution (AED): 360,000 × 5 = 1,800,000
Step 6: Year one result
What a strong candidate does: Contribution minus launch marketing.
Year one result (AED): 1,800,000 - 2,500,000 = -700,000
Step 7: Fix A: trial to 30 percent
What a strong candidate does: Triers rise to 108,000; repeat buyers are 30 percent of them; packs and contribution follow.
Contribution with trial at 30 percent (AED): (108,000 × 1 + 108,000 × 0.3 × 10) × 5 = 2,160,000
Step 8: Fix B: repeat to 40 percent
What a strong candidate does: Triers stay 90,000; repeat buyers become 36,000.
Contribution with repeat at 40 percent (AED): (90,000 × 1 + 90,000 × 0.4 × 10) × 5 = 2,250,000
The recommendation to listen for
At the end, say: "The CEO walks in. What is your recommendation?"
Year one does not pay on its own: contribution of AED 1.8 million is AED 0.7 million short of the AED 2.5 million launch cost, so the brand must win on repeat. Fixing repeat is worth more than fixing trial: lifting repeat from 30 to 40 percent adds AED 450,000 of contribution, against AED 360,000 for lifting trial from 25 to 30 percent, because each repeat buyer brings ten packs. The risk is that repeat is weak because the product itself disappoints, which no promotion will fix. As a next step, ask triers who did not buy again why, before spending more on reach.
Score the candidate
Score each criterion from 1 to 5. A 2 or a 4 sits between the descriptions.
This case has no exhibit. Score Exhibit reading on how the candidate used the data you gave them: did they pick out the number that matters and say what it means?
Total
0 out of 25
Score all five criteria to see the band and the feedback template.