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Sizing a market entry: toothpaste in urban Indonesia

You run the case. Read the prompt, answer questions from the notes below, and share data only when the candidate asks for it or gets stuck. Score at the end.

Case timer

00:00

Target length:

1. Read the prompt aloud

Read it slowly, then pause. Let the candidate ask questions before they structure.

A fictional European oral care brand is thinking of entering Indonesia, starting in cities. Using the data shown (IMF and World Bank figures, plus one illustrative assumption of USD 3 spent on toothpaste per urban person per year), size the urban toothpaste market today and next year.

The prompt refers to Exhibit 1. After reading it, say: "Open Exhibit 1 now."

2. Answers to clarifying questions

This case has no scripted clarifying answers. Answer from the prompt, and say "assume what you think is reasonable" if the prompt does not cover it.

3. A model structure

Compare the candidate's structure with this one. A different split can be just as good if it is clean and fits the problem.

Market = urban people x spend per person, grown by real growth and inflation
- People: population x urban share
- Spend: USD 3 per urban person a year (an assumption to test)
- Key: Growth: real growth and inflation together

Exhibit 1

The prompt uses this exhibit, so the candidate opens it right after you read the prompt ("Show exhibit 1" on their screen).

Indonesia: inputs for the sizing(see each row)

Indonesia: inputs for the sizing
Input	Value	Year
Population, millions (IMF)	284.4	2,025
Urban share, percent (World Bank)	59.4	2,025
Real GDP growth, percent (IMF projection)	5	2,026
Inflation, percent (IMF projection)	3	2,026
Spending per urban person, USD a year (illustrative assumption)	3	2,026

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook database (April 2026); World Bank World Development Indicators; checked 2026-10-01. The spending figure is an assumption for practice, not data.

So-what

Two sourced numbers give the buyers, one assumption gives the spend, and two IMF projections give the growth.

4. The working, step by step

Each step shows how a strong candidate works it out. Share a new fact from it only when the candidate asks or is stuck, and let them do the math: the result in the dark box is what they should reach.

Step 1: Urban people
What a strong candidate does: Population times the urban share.
Urban population (millions): 284.4 × 0.594 = 169
Step 2: Market today
What a strong candidate does: Urban people times USD 3 each a year.
Urban toothpaste market (USD millions): 284.4 × 0.594 × 3 = 507
Step 3: Growth in money terms
What a strong candidate does: Real growth of 5.0 percent and inflation of 3.0 percent together: 1.05 times 1.03, minus 1.
Growth in money terms (percent): (1.05 × 1.03 - 1) × 100 = 8.15
Step 4: Market next year
What a strong candidate does: Today's market grown by 8.15 percent. This assumes toothpaste spending grows with the economy, which is a simplification.
Urban toothpaste market next year (USD millions): 284.4 × 0.594 × 3 × 1.0815 = 548

The recommendation to listen for

At the end, say: "The CEO walks in. What is your recommendation?"

Urban Indonesia has about 169 million people. At an assumed USD 3 each a year, urban toothpaste is worth about USD 507 million today and about USD 548 million next year, if the rupiah holds its value against the dollar. That is large enough to be worth a closer look, but the decision turns on two things this sizing does not answer: the real spending per person (check shelf prices and how often people buy) and how much share a new brand could win from established players. Next steps: test the USD 3 assumption in shops, and work out the share needed to pay back the cost of entry.

Risks a strong answer names: The spending figure is an assumption; a change of 1 dollar moves the market by about USD 169 million.; Spending on toothpaste may not grow with the economy; it depends on brushing habits and premium products.; A weaker rupiah would shrink the market measured in US dollars even if volumes grow..

Score the candidate

Score each criterion from 1 to 5. A 2 or a 4 sits between the descriptions.

Structuring

1: No clear structure, or a memorized framework that does not fit the problem.
3: A sensible structure, but with some overlap, a gap, or no clear priority.
5: A structure built for this problem, with no overlap and no gaps, a stated hypothesis, and a clear first step.

Math

1: Frequent errors, no units, or needed heavy help to finish.
3: Right answers but slow or messy working, or one error caught late.
5: Accurate and clearly narrated, with units, a sense check, and what the number means.

Exhibit reading

1: Read the chart aloud without finding the number that matters.
3: Found the key number but gave only part of the so-what.
5: Pulled the right number quickly and said what it means for the case.

Synthesis

1: Summarized what was done, with no clear answer.
3: Gave an answer, but with weak reasons or no next step.
5: Answer first, then two or three reasons with numbers, the main risk, and next steps.

Communication

1: Hard to follow: long silences, no signposting.
3: Clear most of the time, with some rambling.
5: Calm and concise, signposted each step, and checked in with the interviewer.

Total

0 out of 25

Score all five criteria to see the band and the feedback template.