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Sizing a market entry: toothpaste in urban Indonesia

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Indonesia: inputs for the sizing(see each row)
Indonesia: inputs for the sizing
InputValueYear
Population, millions (IMF)284.42,025
Urban share, percent (World Bank)59.42,025
Real GDP growth, percent (IMF projection)52,026
Inflation, percent (IMF projection)32,026
Spending per urban person, USD a year (illustrative assumption)32,026

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook database (April 2026); World Bank World Development Indicators; checked 2026-10-01. The spending figure is an assumption for practice, not data.

The prompt

A fictional European oral care brand is thinking of entering Indonesia, starting in cities. Using the data shown (IMF and World Bank figures, plus one illustrative assumption of USD 3 spent on toothpaste per urban person per year), size the urban toothpaste market today and next year.

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The exhibit

Indonesia: inputs for the sizing(see each row)
Indonesia: inputs for the sizing
InputValueYear
Population, millions (IMF)284.42,025
Urban share, percent (World Bank)59.42,025
Real GDP growth, percent (IMF projection)52,026
Inflation, percent (IMF projection)32,026
Spending per urban person, USD a year (illustrative assumption)32,026

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook database (April 2026); World Bank World Development Indicators; checked 2026-10-01. The spending figure is an assumption for practice, not data.

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