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Stretch: Bringing 10 million more adults in Nigeria into financial services

You run the case. Read the prompt, answer questions from the notes below, and share data only when the candidate asks for it or gets stuck. Score at the end.

Case timer

00:00

Target length:

1. Read the prompt aloud

Read it slowly, then pause. Let the candidate ask questions before they structure.

First, estimate how many adults in Nigeria use no formal financial service. Then: a national financial inclusion program wants 10 million more adults to use an account within three years, through local agents. How many agents are needed, and should the program support them?

Format note: Difficulty: Stretch. Format: market-sizing opener, then a business question. Industry: Public sector and financial services. Region: Nigeria. Interview length: about 35 minutes. The company is fictional and all figures are illustrative.

2. Answers to clarifying questions

Give these answers only if the candidate asks. If they ask something not listed, give a sensible answer or say it does not matter here.

If asked: How many adults are there, and what share uses no formal financial service?
Answer: Use about 120 million adults and about 30 percent excluded (rounded and illustrative).
If asked: What is the target?
Answer: 10 million more adults using an account within three years, mostly in rural areas.
If asked: How do agents work and earn?
Answer: An agent is a local shop that takes cash deposits and pays out withdrawals for a bank or mobile-money provider. It earns about NGN 50 per transaction, and an active customer makes about 6 transactions a month.
If asked: What does it cost to run an agent?
Answer: About NGN 60,000 a month for cash float, security, and transport, and the owner needs about NGN 60,000 a month for their time to make it worthwhile. A mature agent serves about 500 active customers; a new rural agent has about 300 in its first year. There are 8,000 rural agents today; most serve few active customers, and together they have room for about 4 million more.

3. The hypothesis a strong candidate states

Listen for an early, testable guess like this one. It does not need to match word for word.

Agents are the main way to reach rural adults, but new rural agents may not earn enough at first. My hypothesis is that a time-limited support payment for new agents is the cheapest way to reach the target.

4. A model structure

Compare the candidate's structure with this one. A different split can be just as good if it is clean and fits the problem.

Size the gap, then make new agents viable at the lowest public cost
- Adults x share excluded
- Agents needed = new customers / customers per agent
- Key: Agent income versus agent cost
- Support budget and cost per newly included adult

5. The working, step by step

Each step shows how a strong candidate works it out. Share a new fact from it only when the candidate asks or is stuck, and let them do the math: the result in the dark box is what they should reach.

Step 1: Excluded adults
What a strong candidate does: 30 percent of about 120 million adults.
Excluded adults: 120,000,000 × 0.3 = 36,000,000
Step 2: New agents needed
What a strong candidate does: Today's 8,000 rural agents can take about 4 million of the 10 million new customers. The other 6 million need new agents at 500 customers each.
New agents needed: (10,000,000 - 4,000,000) ÷ 500 = 12,000
Step 3: Customers an agent needs to break even
What a strong candidate does: Each customer brings 6 transactions at NGN 50 a month; costs are NGN 120,000 a month.
Break-even customers per agent: (60,000 + 60,000) ÷ (6 × 50) = 400
Step 4: Gap for a new rural agent
What a strong candidate does: 300 customers in year one.
Monthly result in year one (NGN): 300 × 6 × 50 - (60,000 + 60,000) = -30,000
Step 5: Support budget
What a strong candidate does: Close the gap for 12,000 new agents for 12 months.
Support budget (NGN): 12,000 × 30,000 × 12 = 4,320,000,000
Step 6: Cost per newly included adult
What a strong candidate does: Budget divided by 10 million adults.
Cost per adult (NGN): 12,000 × 30,000 × 12 ÷ 10,000,000 = 432
Step 7: Curveball: social benefits through agents
What a strong candidate does: Interviewer: "The government plans to pay some social benefits through agents. Each rural agent would pay out about 100 benefits a month and earn NGN 100 for each."
Monthly result in year one with benefits (NGN): 300 × 6 × 50 + 100 × 100 - (60,000 + 60,000) = -20,000
Step 8: New support budget
What a strong candidate does: The smaller gap for 12,000 agents over 12 months.
Support budget with benefits (NGN): 12,000 × (120,000 - 300 × 6 × 50 - 100 × 100) × 12 = 2,880,000,000

The recommendation to listen for

At the end, say: "The CEO walks in. What is your recommendation?"

I recommend that the program support about 12,000 new rural agents, paying support only for agents whose customers are active. First, about 36 million adults use no formal financial service, and reaching 10 million more needs 12,000 new agents. Second, a new agent with 300 customers is NGN 30,000 a month short in year one, against break-even at 400, so 12 months of support costs about NGN 4.3 billion, about NGN 432 per newly included adult. Third, paying social benefits through agents cuts the budget to about NGN 2.9 billion. Check activity data monthly to stop fake accounts.

Risks a strong answer names: Agents may open accounts that are never used, just to collect support; Cash shortages or security problems in some areas may keep agents from opening.

Next steps: Agree a definition of an active customer with banks and mobile-money providers; Start in three states and publish monthly activity data.

Strong versus weak

A strong answer

Sized the gap with clear assumptions, then worked from the agent's own economics to a support budget and a cost per adult, and designed the support to reward real use.

A weak answer

Proposed opening bank branches in every rural area, without checking cost or whether customers would use them.

Score the candidate

Score each criterion from 1 to 5. A 2 or a 4 sits between the descriptions.

This case has no exhibit. Score Exhibit reading on how the candidate used the data you gave them: did they pick out the number that matters and say what it means?

Structuring

1: No clear structure, or a memorized framework that does not fit the problem.
3: A sensible structure, but with some overlap, a gap, or no clear priority.
5: A structure built for this problem, with no overlap and no gaps, a stated hypothesis, and a clear first step.

Math

1: Frequent errors, no units, or needed heavy help to finish.
3: Right answers but slow or messy working, or one error caught late.
5: Accurate and clearly narrated, with units, a sense check, and what the number means.

Exhibit reading

1: Read the chart aloud without finding the number that matters.
3: Found the key number but gave only part of the so-what.
5: Pulled the right number quickly and said what it means for the case.

Synthesis

1: Summarized what was done, with no clear answer.
3: Gave an answer, but with weak reasons or no next step.
5: Answer first, then two or three reasons with numbers, the main risk, and next steps.

Communication

1: Hard to follow: long silences, no signposting.
3: Clear most of the time, with some rambling.
5: Calm and concise, signposted each step, and checked in with the interviewer.

Total

0 out of 25

Score all five criteria to see the band and the feedback template.