Tariffs, trade agreements and rules of origin
How tariffs work, why most-favoured-nation rates are the default, how trade agreements and rules of origin change the rate, and what changed in 2025 and 2026 in the US, EU, India, ASEAN and the Gulf.
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Key takeaways
- A tariff is a tax on imports, paid by the importer at the border.
- Rates change faster than lessons: In a case, state the tariff you are assuming and where it comes from, then test what happens if it moves up or down.
- Most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment: under WTO rules a country normally may not treat one trading partner worse than another, so its standard tariff applies to all members.
- Bound and applied rates: each WTO member "binds" a maximum rate for each product.
Key idea
A tariff is a tax on imports, paid by the importer at the border. What a product pays depends on three things: its tariff line, where it legally comes from (its origin), and which agreements or special measures apply to that origin. Origin is decided by rules, not by the label on the box.
The importer pays the tariff to customs, but who carries the cost in the end depends on who can pass it on. Often it is shared: the foreign seller cuts its price a little, the importer accepts a lower margin, and shoppers pay a bit more. Most tariffs are ad valorem (a percentage of value). Some are specific: since 1 July 2026, for example, the EU charges a duty of EUR 3 per item on many small parcels worth EUR 150 or less that used to enter duty free.
The basic rules
- Most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment: under WTO rules a country normally may not treat one trading partner worse than another, so its standard tariff applies to all members.
- Bound and applied rates: each WTO member "binds" a maximum rate for each product. The rate it actually applies can be lower than the bound rate.
- The main exceptions: free trade agreements, where members cut tariffs only for each other; special access for developing countries, such as the EU's Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) and its Everything But Arms scheme for the least developed countries; and trade remedies, such as anti-dumping duties against goods judged to be sold unfairly.
Rules of origin
A trade agreement only helps goods that "originate" in a member country. Otherwise a country outside the agreement could ship goods through a member and skip the tariff. Rules of origin set the test. The common ones are: wholly obtained (grown or mined there); a change in tariff classification (the inputs are turned into a product with a different tariff heading); a regional value content (a minimum share of the value added in the region, such as the 75 percent the USMCA requires for cars); and a specific process (for clothing, for example, knitting the fabric as well as sewing the garment).
| Origin and how the shirt is made | EU duty, percent |
|---|---|
| Bangladesh, sewn from imported fabric (Everything But Arms) | 0 |
| Vietnam, fabric knitted in Vietnam or the EU, or Korean fabric (EU-Vietnam agreement) | 0 |
| Vietnam, sewn from fabric made in China | 12 |
| India, knitted and sewn in India (GSP) | 9.6 |
| Any origin with no preference | 12 |
So-what
The same shirt can pay 0 or 12 percent depending on where its fabric was made.
Why the difference? For the least developed countries the EU accepts garments sewn from imported fabric. For other GSP countries, and under the EU-Vietnam agreement, the rule is "knitting and making-up": the fabric must be made in the country too. The EU-Vietnam agreement adds one exception: since December 2020, fabric made in South Korea, which also has a trade agreement with the EU, can count as if it were Vietnamese.
Worked case
Chinese or Korean fabric for a Vietnamese factory?
The prompt
A fictional European fashion brand buys 500,000 cotton T-shirts a year from a factory in Vietnam. Made with Chinese fabric, a shirt costs USD 3.80 delivered to the EU border (its CIF value). Made with Korean fabric, it costs USD 4.05. The EU duty is 12 percent without a preference and 0 percent under the EU-Vietnam agreement, which Chinese fabric does not meet and Korean fabric does. Which fabric should the brand choose?
The structure
- Cost at the border after duty = CIF value x (1 + duty rate)
- Chinese fabric: cheaper shirt, 12 percent duty
- Korean fabric: dearer shirt, 0 percent duty
- Key: Difference per shirt and per year
Working it through
1. Chinese fabric after duty
USD 3.80 plus 12 percent.
Duty-paid cost with Chinese fabric (USD):3.8 × 1.12 = 4.262. Korean fabric after duty
USD 4.05 with no duty.
Duty-paid cost with Korean fabric (USD):4.05 × 1 = 4.053. Saving per shirt
Chinese minus Korean.
Saving per shirt with Korean fabric (USD):4.256 - 4.05 = 0.2064. Saving per year
500,000 shirts.
Saving per year (USD):0.206 × 500,000 = 103,000
The recommendation
The brand should switch to Korean fabric, because the shirt that costs 25 cents more at the factory is about 21 cents cheaper after duty, saving about USD 103,000 a year. First, the 12 percent duty on USD 3.80 is about 46 cents a shirt. Second, the Korean fabric qualifies the shirt for the EU-Vietnam preference, so that duty falls to zero. The risk is paperwork: the claim needs valid origin statements for the fabric and the shirt, and a failed audit means paying the duty back. As a next step, ask the factory to show its origin documents for one shipment before switching the whole order.
What is happening now (checked 1 October 2026)
United States
- On 20 February 2026 the US Supreme Court ruled against the broad tariffs imposed in 2025 under an emergency powers law (IEEPA). The same day the White House announced a temporary 10 percent import surcharge under section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which can last at most 150 days; it ran from 24 February to 24 July 2026.
- From 12:01 a.m. on 24 July 2026, new Section 301 tariffs apply to 60 economies, on top of normal duties. US Customs lists 10 percent for goods from India, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia and others, and 12.5 percent for goods from Vietnam, China, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and others. Goods from Mexico and Canada that enter duty free under the USMCA are exempt, and so are goods covered by Section 232 tariffs.
- Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium were raised to 50 percent in June 2025 and redrawn twice in 2026, in April and June, with different rates for raw metal and for products made of it. Always read the current proclamation for the exact product.
- The USMCA, the trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada, requires 75 percent North American content for cars and 40 to 45 percent made by workers earning at least USD 16 an hour. At the first joint review on 1 July 2026 the US did not agree to renew the agreement in its current form. Under the agreement's review clause (Article 34.7) that means a joint review every year; the agreement still runs to 2036, 16 years after it took effect, unless all three countries agree to extend it.
European Union
- The EU and India concluded a free trade agreement on 27 January 2026. India's tariffs on European cars are set to fall gradually from 110 percent to as low as 10 percent, and on wine from 150 to 75 percent at entry into force, later to as low as 20 percent. On 11 September 2026 the Commission sent it to the Council for signature; it still needs the European Parliament's consent and India's ratification before it takes effect.
- The EU-Mercosur interim trade agreement has applied provisionally since 1 May 2026 with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
- The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026 for imports of cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen: importers will pay for the carbon emitted in making these goods.
India, ASEAN and the Gulf
- India and the UK: the trade agreement signed in July 2025 entered into force on 15 July 2026. The UK Government says whisky and gin tariffs in India are halved from 150 to 75 percent, falling to 40 percent by year ten, and 99 percent of Indian goods enter the UK duty free or at lower tariffs.
- India and EFTA (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland): the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement entered into force on 1 October 2025. India and the UAE: the CEPA has been in force since 1 May 2022.
- ASEAN: under the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA), the ASEAN Secretariat says tariffs on about 98.86 percent of products are fully eliminated. An upgrade was signed in October 2025 and enters into force when all members ratify it. The RCEP agreement (ASEAN plus Australia, China, Japan, Korea and New Zealand) has been in force since 1 January 2022 and covers about 30 percent of world GDP.
- The Gulf: the UAE's official portal gives tariffs of 0 to 5 percent, with most goods in Dubai paying 5 percent of CIF value. It notes that goods from other GCC countries are treated as local when at least 40 percent of their raw materials originate in the GCC, and that the UAE ranks third in the world for re-exports.
In a case, state the tariff you are assuming and where it comes from, then test what happens if it moves up or down. A recommendation that only works at today's rate is a weak recommendation.
A US importer brings in goods from Vietnam with a customs value of USD 100,000. The normal MFN duty is 5 percent and the Section 301 tariff adds 12.5 percent on top. What is the total duty, in USD?
A factory in Vietnam sews shirts from fabric it imports from China and ships them to the EU. Which statement is right?
What does most-favoured-nation treatment mean under WTO rules?
Why do trade agreements need rules of origin?
Sources for this lesson (28)
- WTO, Understanding the WTO: principles of the trading system (most-favoured-nation treatment, bound tariffs and the exceptions)
- European Commission TARIC: CN 6109 10 00 10 for Bangladesh, reference date 1 October 2026 (Everything But Arms 0 percent; EUR 3 low-value consignment duty from 1 July 2026)
- European Commission TARIC: CN 6109 10 00 10 for Viet Nam, reference date 1 October 2026 (EU-Vietnam agreement preference 0 percent from 1 January 2025)
- European Commission TARIC: CN 6109 10 00 10 (cotton T-shirts) for India, reference date 1 October 2026 (third country duty 12 percent; GSP 9.6 percent)
- Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/2446, Annex 22-03: GSP product-specific origin rules (chapter 61: least developed countries "manufacture from fabric"; others "knitting and making-up"), EUR-Lex
- European Commission (DG TAXUD), EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement: guidance on the rules of origin, version 8 (2026): chapters 61 to 63 and cumulation with Korean fabric
- Supreme Court of the United States, docket 24-1287 (Learning Resources v. Trump, with 25-250): judgment of 20 February 2026
- The White House: proclamation imposing a temporary 10 percent import surcharge under section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (20 February 2026)
- USTR press release: USTR takes action in forced labor Section 301 investigations (23 July 2026)
- USTR fact sheet: Section 301 action on 60 economies that failed to ban imports made with forced labor (July 2026; articles subject to Section 232 tariffs are excluded)
- US Customs and Border Protection, CSMS 69326983: guidance on Section 301 forced labor import duties, effective 12:01 a.m. on 24 July 2026 (rates by country; USMCA exemption)
- The White House: proclamation raising Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50 percent (3 June 2025)
- The White House: proclamation strengthening actions taken to adjust imports of aluminum, steel and copper (April 2026)
- The White House: proclamation further adjusting the tariff regimes for aluminum, steel and copper (June 2026)
- USTR fact sheet: USMCA rebalancing for American workers (automotive rules of origin)
- USTR: statement on the USMCA joint review (1 July 2026)
- USMCA text, Chapter 34 (Final Provisions), Article 34.7: review and term extension
- European Commission press release IP/26/184: EU and India conclude landmark free trade agreement (27 January 2026)
- European Commission press release IP/26/1842: Commission presents India trade deal to Council for signature (11 September 2026)
- European Commission, Taxation and Customs Union: provisional application of the EU-Mercosur Interim Trade Agreement begins 1 May 2026
- European Commission, Taxation and Customs Union: Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (definitive regime from 1 January 2026)
- UK Government: UK-India free trade agreement is now in effect (in force 15 July 2026; published 17 July 2026)
- UK Government: UK concludes trade deal with India (6 May 2025; whisky and gin tariffs 150 to 75 to 40 percent)
- EFTA: EFTA-India Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement enters into force (1 October 2025)
- Press Information Bureau, Government of India: Department of Commerce year end review 2022 (India-UAE CEPA in force from 1 May 2022)
- ASEAN Secretariat: trade in goods (ATIGA; about 98.86 percent of tariffs eliminated; ATIGA upgrade signed October 2025)
- Government of Singapore, Ministry of Trade and Industry: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (in force 1 January 2022)
- The Official Portal of the UAE Government: customs duty and tariff (5 percent of CIF value; GCC origin rule; updated 14 September 2026)
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