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Launch economics: a new lung treatment in Germany

You run the case. Read the prompt, answer questions from the notes below, and share data only when the candidate asks for it or gets stuck. Score at the end.

Case timer

00:00

Target length:

1. Read the prompt aloud

Read it slowly, then pause. Let the candidate ask questions before they structure.

A fictional mid-sized pharma company plans to launch a new treatment for a chronic lung disease in Germany. About 50,000 patients are eligible, and it expects to treat 20 percent of them at peak. The net price (after discounts) is EUR 12,000 per patient per year. Making the drug costs 10 percent of net sales, and the medical and sales team costs EUR 30 million a year. What are peak sales and peak yearly contribution after the sales team?

2. Answers to clarifying questions

This case has no scripted clarifying answers. Answer from the prompt, and say "assume what you think is reasonable" if the prompt does not cover it.

3. A model structure

Compare the candidate's structure with this one. A different split can be just as good if it is clean and fits the problem.

Peak contribution = patients x share x net price, minus cost of goods and the launch team
- Patients treated at peak
- Peak sales
- Minus cost of goods and the sales team

4. The working, step by step

Each step shows how a strong candidate works it out. Share a new fact from it only when the candidate asks or is stuck, and let them do the math: the result in the dark box is what they should reach.

Step 1: Patients treated
What a strong candidate does: 20 percent of 50,000.
Patients treated at peak: 50,000 × 0.2 = 10,000
Step 2: Peak sales
What a strong candidate does: 10,000 patients at EUR 12,000.
Peak sales (EUR millions): 50,000 × 0.2 × 12,000 ÷ 1,000,000 = 120
Step 3: Cost of goods
What a strong candidate does: 10 percent of sales.
Cost of goods (EUR millions): 120 × 0.1 = 12
Step 4: Contribution after the sales team
What a strong candidate does: Sales minus cost of goods minus EUR 30 million.
Peak contribution (EUR millions): 120 - 12 - 30 = 78

The recommendation to listen for

At the end, say: "The CEO walks in. What is your recommendation?"

The company should launch, because peak sales of EUR 120 million from 10,000 treated patients give about EUR 78 million a year of contribution after the EUR 30 million sales team. First, making the drug costs only EUR 12 million at peak, so most sales fall through to contribution. Second, the result rests on two drivers: a 20 percent share of eligible patients and the EUR 12,000 net price. The risk is the German benefit assessment: if it finds no added benefit, the negotiated price can be much lower. As a next step, test with doctors whether the drug beats current treatment by enough to win a 20 percent share.

Risks a strong answer names: Uptake is usually slow: peak sales often come several years after launch; If the benefit assessment finds no added benefit, the negotiated price can be much lower.

Score the candidate

Score each criterion from 1 to 5. A 2 or a 4 sits between the descriptions.

This case has no exhibit. Score Exhibit reading on how the candidate used the data you gave them: did they pick out the number that matters and say what it means?

Structuring

1: No clear structure, or a memorized framework that does not fit the problem.
3: A sensible structure, but with some overlap, a gap, or no clear priority.
5: A structure built for this problem, with no overlap and no gaps, a stated hypothesis, and a clear first step.

Math

1: Frequent errors, no units, or needed heavy help to finish.
3: Right answers but slow or messy working, or one error caught late.
5: Accurate and clearly narrated, with units, a sense check, and what the number means.

Exhibit reading

1: Read the chart aloud without finding the number that matters.
3: Found the key number but gave only part of the so-what.
5: Pulled the right number quickly and said what it means for the case.

Synthesis

1: Summarized what was done, with no clear answer.
3: Gave an answer, but with weak reasons or no next step.
5: Answer first, then two or three reasons with numbers, the main risk, and next steps.

Communication

1: Hard to follow: long silences, no signposting.
3: Clear most of the time, with some rambling.
5: Calm and concise, signposted each step, and checked in with the interviewer.

Total

0 out of 25

Score all five criteria to see the band and the feedback template.