Mining players, trends 2024 to 2026, and how to crack the cases
Who the players are by region, critical minerals and other trends, regulation basics, typical prompts, traps and drills.
Industry brief, with a one-minute summary: Mining and metalsFirm processes and online tests change from year to year and differ by office. Use this to prepare, and confirm the exact current steps on the firm's own careers page.
Key takeaways
- Mining cases usually ask whether to build or buy a mine, how to cut cost per tonne, or how to secure supply of a critical mineral.
- Common traps: Planning at today's price, especially at the top of a cycle.
- Critical minerals: the IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 reports that the number of mineral trade codes under Chinese export controls has tripled since 2023.
- Mining rights: the state usually owns minerals and grants licences, with royalties and taxes.
- Local processing rules: some countries require minerals to be processed at home, for example Indonesia's ban on exporting unprocessed nickel ore, which built a large local nickel industry.
Key idea
Mining cases usually ask whether to build or buy a mine, how to cut cost per tonne, or how to secure supply of a critical mineral. Start with the price and the company's place on the cost curve, then test the decision at a low price.
| Region | Miners | Metals and steel producers |
|---|---|---|
| Australia, UK and Europe listed | BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American | ArcelorMittal (steel), Norsk Hydro (aluminium) |
| Latin America | Vale (Brazil), Codelco (Chile, state owned), SQM (Chile, lithium) | Local steel producers such as Gerdau |
| Gulf | Ma'aden (Saudi Arabia) | Emirates Global Aluminium (UAE), Alba (Bahrain), gas-based steel plants |
| India | Coal India, NMDC (iron ore), Vedanta, Hindustan Zinc | Tata Steel, JSW Steel, SAIL, Hindalco (aluminium) |
| China | Zijin Mining, CMOC, lithium producers such as Ganfeng and Tianqi | China Baowu (steel), many aluminium smelters and refiners |
| Africa | Many projects run by global and Chinese miners, for example copper and cobalt in the DRC and Zambia | Growing local processing ambitions |
So-what
Several large producers are state owned or state linked, such as Codelco, Coal India and Ma'aden, so national goals such as jobs and local processing matter in their cases.
Trends 2024 to 2026 (checked 28 September 2026)
- Critical minerals: the IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 reports that the number of mineral trade codes under Chinese export controls has tripled since 2023. China added controls on seven heavy rare earth elements in April 2025, and in October 2025 announced controls on key battery materials (cathode materials, their precursors and graphite anode materials) and on battery manufacturing equipment and technology. In November 2025 China suspended the October 2025 measures until 10 November 2026, so check whether they are back in force.
- Copper supply: the same IEA report says benchmark copper smelter fees (what a miner pays a smelter to process its concentrate) were settled at USD 0 per tonne for 2026, the lowest level ever agreed in annual negotiations. Fees this low usually mean smelters are competing for scarce concentrate.
- Copper: the London Metal Exchange price passed USD 13,000 per tonne for the first time in early January 2026 (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence), up from an average of about USD 9,700 in 2025 (US Geological Survey). Demand from grids, data centres and electric vehicles is growing, while new mine supply is slow to arrive (see the smelter fee point above). Check the latest London Metal Exchange price before an interview.
- Steel: worldsteel reports world crude steel production of about 1,849 million tonnes in 2025, with China producing a little over half (about 961 million tonnes). India's output kept growing through 2025.
- Carbon at the border: the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026, covering imports of iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen. EU importers of these goods must pay for their embedded emissions by buying CBAM certificates (the first are bought in 2027 for 2026 imports), which passes a carbon cost on to exporters.
Regulation basics
- Mining rights: the state usually owns minerals and grants licences, with royalties and taxes. Terms can change when prices are high.
- Local processing rules: some countries require minerals to be processed at home, for example Indonesia's ban on exporting unprocessed nickel ore, which built a large local nickel industry.
- Environment and safety: permits for water, land, emissions, closure plans and tailings dams.
- Communities and indigenous rights: consultation and agreements are often required, and delays here are a common reason projects slip.
- Trade and critical mineral policies: many governments now support domestic supply, stockpiles and partnerships for critical minerals.
Typical case prompts and how to crack them
| Prompt | Structure hint | First driver to check |
|---|---|---|
| A copper miner's profit fell by half. Why? | Profit = volume x (price minus cash cost per tonne); volume = ore x grade x recovery | Copper price, then grade and recovery |
| Should we build a new lithium mine in Africa? | Investment: price outlook, cost curve position, capex, time to build, permits, community, offtake contracts | Cost curve position at a low lithium price |
| Cut cost per tonne at an iron ore mine by 15 percent | Cost tree: mining, processing, logistics, overheads; volume and productivity | Haulage and equipment productivity, and rail or port limits |
| An EV maker wants secure battery minerals | Options: long-term contracts, equity stakes, recycling, other chemistries; supply risk by country | Where the refining capacity sits, not only the mine |
| Should an Indian steel maker double capacity? | Demand growth, spread outlook, cost position, raw material security, route choice (blast furnace or EAF) | Steel demand growth versus new supply |
So-what
In mining, most answers change with the price. Always show the decision at more than one price.
Planning at today's price, especially at the top of a cycle. Forgetting that grade falls as a mine gets older. Confusing tonnes of ore with tonnes of metal. Ignoring the time from discovery to production. Assuming a mine can ship all it produces when rail or port capacity is full. Forgetting community consent and permits. Looking only at mines when the real supply bottleneck is refining.
Investment and capital project decisions; Cost reduction and cost cutting; Capacity, supply chain, and footprint; Sustainability and decarbonization; Mergers, acquisitions, and due diligence.
Use the cost curve of five fictional mines from the previous lesson (A 3,000; B 4,500; C 6,000; D 7,500; E 9,000 USD per tonne; cumulative output 400, 700, 1,200, 1,500 and 1,700 thousand tonnes). World demand falls from 1,400 to 1,100 thousand tonnes. Which mine becomes the marginal producer?
Ridgecrest Copper (fictional) produces 180,000 tonnes a year at a cash cost of USD 4,500 per tonne. If the copper price falls from USD 9,500 to USD 7,000, what is the new yearly cash margin, in USD million?
Over time, where does the price of a commodity like copper tend to settle?
Which route to make steel is common in the Gulf, and why?
An EV maker wants to secure lithium supply. What is a common mistake?
Sources for this lesson (7)
- IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026
- worldsteel, December 2025 crude steel production and 2025 global totals
- worldsteel, World Steel in Figures 2026
- London Metal Exchange, LME Copper
- Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, "Copper price hits record $13,000/t as rally continues"
- US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: copper
- European Commission, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
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