Aviation players, trends, and how to crack the cases
Main airlines, airports, and lessors by region, the fuel shock and Gulf disruption of 2026, regulation basics, and typical case prompts.
Industry brief, with a one-minute summary: Airlines and aviationFirm processes and online tests change from year to year and differ by office. Use this to prepare, and confirm the exact current steps on the firm's own careers page.
Key takeaways
- Aviation is exposed to shocks it cannot control: fuel prices, conflicts, pandemics, and aircraft delivery delays.
- Common traps in aviation cases: Judging an airline by load factor alone: a full plane at low fares can lose money.
- A fuel shock halved expected profits.
- The Gulf was hit hardest, then recovered.
- New Gulf capacity. Saudi Arabia launched Riyadh Air, which began flights to London in October 2025, as part of its tourism and aviation strategy.
Key idea
Aviation is exposed to shocks it cannot control: fuel prices, conflicts, pandemics, and aircraft delivery delays. Good airline answers always test what happens if fuel or demand moves.
| Region | Examples | Sourced facts |
|---|---|---|
| Gulf | Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Saudia, Riyadh Air, flydubai, Air Arabia | Emirates Group reported record profit before tax of AED 24.4 billion for the year to March 2026; Riyadh Air began flights to London Heathrow in October 2025 |
| Europe | Lufthansa Group, Air France-KLM, IAG; Ryanair, easyJet, Wizz Air | Ryanair reported about 208 million passengers and a 94 percent load factor in the year to March 2026 |
| India | IndiGo, Air India group, Akasa Air | DGCA data reported by Aviation A2Z show IndiGo carrying about two thirds of domestic passengers in mid-2026 |
| US | Delta, United, American, Southwest | Large domestic networks and strong loyalty programmes |
| Leasing | AerCap, SMBC Aviation Capital, Avolon, Sumisho Air Lease | AerCap reported 1,501 owned aircraft at the end of 2025 (Form 20-F); Air Lease was bought by Sumitomo, SMBC Aviation Capital and partners in April 2026 and renamed Sumisho Air Lease |
So-what
In India and many short-haul European markets one low-cost carrier dominates; long-haul connecting traffic is where Gulf hubs compete.
Trends from 2024 to 2026 (checked September 2026)
- A fuel shock halved expected profits. In June 2026, IATA cut its forecast for industry net profit in 2026 to USD 23 billion (a 2.0 percent margin), about half the USD 45 billion (4.2 percent) it estimated for 2025. It expects jet fuel to average about USD 152 per barrel in 2026, up from about USD 90 in 2025, while passenger numbers still grow to about 5.1 billion.
- The Gulf was hit hardest, then recovered. From 28 February 2026, a regional conflict closed airspace across parts of the Gulf, and major Gulf airlines suspended most scheduled flights for about a week. Emirates still reported a record year to March 2026. By mid-June 2026 Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad were flying close to 90 percent or more of their pre-conflict flights (Flightradar24 data reported by Gulf Times), but in August the full-service Gulf carriers still had about 20 to 25 percent less capacity than in 2025 (Gulf News).
- New Gulf capacity. Saudi Arabia launched Riyadh Air, which began flights to London in October 2025, as part of its tourism and aviation strategy.
- India's market concentrated. IndiGo's domestic share reached a record 66.3 percent in June 2026, based on monthly DGCA data, while the Air India group's share fell to about 24 percent.
- Aircraft remain scarce. Delivery delays at aircraft and engine makers kept demand for leased aircraft high; AerCap reported that its owned fleet was on lease about 99 percent of the time in 2025.
Countries agree which airlines may fly between them in bilateral air service agreements, based on the "freedoms of the air". The sixth freedom, carrying passengers between two other countries via your home hub, is the basis of the Gulf model. Many countries limit foreign ownership of their airlines. Safety is regulated by national authorities (such as EASA in Europe, the FAA in the US, and DGCA in India) under ICAO standards. The EU gives passengers compensation for long delays and cancellations. Slots at busy airports are allocated by independent coordinators, and in the EU an airline keeps a slot series only if it uses it at least 80 percent of the time. Airport charges are often regulated.
| Prompt | Case type | Structure hint | First driver to check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Should an airline open a route from Riyadh to Nairobi? | Investment and capital project decisions | Demand (local and connecting), fares, aircraft cost, competition | Expected load factor and yield against the break-even load factor |
| A European network airline is losing money on short-haul | Profitability | RASK against CASK by route; cost gap with LCCs | CASK gap with the low-cost competitor on the same routes |
| A low-cost carrier is entering our home market | Competitive response | Which routes overlap, their cost advantage, our options | Share of our revenue on overlapping routes |
| Fuel prices jumped 50 percent; what should we do? | Cost reduction and cost cutting | Hedging, capacity cuts, fuel surcharges, fleet | Share of next year's fuel already hedged |
| Should an airport build a new terminal? | Capacity, supply chain, and footprint | Passenger forecast, peak-hour capacity, charges, non-aero revenue | Peak-hour passengers against terminal capacity |
So-what
Airline cases usually come down to RASK against CASK, and to what happens if fuel or demand moves.
See the Profitability, Competitive response, Investment and capital project decisions, and Cost reduction and cost cutting case-type modules for the full method. The Hotels and travel module covers the demand side of tourism.
Judging an airline by load factor alone: a full plane at low fares can lose money. Forgetting that connecting passengers on a Gulf hub pay one fare for two flights. Treating fuel hedging as a way to make money. Ignoring that aircraft, crews, and slots cannot be added quickly. Using 2025 Gulf traffic in 2026 without checking the effect of the conflict and the fuel shock.
A route has an 88 percent load factor but loses money. What is the most likely explanation?
What does a fuel hedge do for an airline?
Why can Gulf hub carriers serve many long-haul routes profitably?
Sources for this lesson (12)
- IATA: Middle East disruptions and high fuel prices halve airline profitability (June 2026)
- Emirates Group: record profit in 2025-26 (May 2026)
- Ryanair FY26 results presentation (May 2026)
- Aviation A2Z: IndiGo domestic market share from DGCA data (July 2026)
- AerCap Form 20-F for 2025
- Saudi Press Agency: Riyadh Air launches inaugural flight to London Heathrow (October 2025)
- EUR-Lex: allocation of time slots at EU airports (summary)
- Euronews: strikes on Iran disrupt regional and international flights (28 February 2026)
- Gulf News: Gulf aviation six months into the conflict, capacity and Dubai hotel occupancy (August 2026)
- Gulf Times: Gulf airlines get back to business as flights near pre-war levels, Flightradar24 data (June 2026)
- Sumitomo Corporation: completion of the Air Lease acquisition, renamed Sumisho Air Lease (April 2026)
- Dubai Media Office: Dubai Duty Free record 2025 sales (January 2026)
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