Interviewer view · keep this screen to yourself

What are the odds for a drug entering trials?

You run the case. Read the prompt, answer questions from the notes below, and share data only when the candidate asks for it or gets stuck. Score at the end.

Case timer

00:00

Target length:

1. Read the prompt aloud

Read it slowly, then pause. Let the candidate ask questions before they structure.

Using the phase success rates in the chart above, what is the chance that a drug entering Phase I is approved, and the chance for a drug entering Phase II?

The prompt refers to Exhibit 1. After reading it, say: "Open Exhibit 1 now."

2. Answers to clarifying questions

This case has no scripted clarifying answers. Answer from the prompt, and say "assume what you think is reasonable" if the prompt does not cover it.

3. A model structure

Compare the candidate's structure with this one. A different split can be just as good if it is clean and fits the problem.

Chance of approval = product of the chances at each remaining step
- From Phase I: all four steps
- From Phase II: the last three steps

Exhibit 1

The prompt uses this exhibit, so the candidate opens it right after you read the prompt ("Show exhibit 1" on their screen).

Chance of moving to the next phase, all drugs, 2011 to 2020(percent)

Source: BIO, Informa Pharma Intelligence and QLS Advisors, Clinical Development Success Rates 2011 to 2020. Rates differ a lot by disease area.

So-what

Phase II is the hardest step. Multiplied together, only about 8 in 100 drugs entering Phase I reach approval.

4. The working, step by step

Each step shows how a strong candidate works it out. Share a new fact from it only when the candidate asks or is stuck, and let them do the math: the result in the dark box is what they should reach.

Step 1: From Phase I
What a strong candidate does: Multiply all four rates.
Chance of approval from Phase I (percent): 0.52 × 0.289 × 0.578 × 0.906 × 100 = 7.87
Step 2: From Phase II
What a strong candidate does: Multiply the last three rates.
Chance of approval from Phase II (percent): 0.289 × 0.578 × 0.906 × 100 = 15.13

The recommendation to listen for

At the end, say: "The CEO walks in. What is your recommendation?"

The company should value every drug in development as a bet, because only about 8 percent of drugs entering Phase I are approved (7.87 percent on these rates), and about 15 percent of those entering Phase II. This means any value placed on a drug must be multiplied by its chance of success, and a pipeline is a set of bets, not a list of future products. The risk is that these averages hide large differences by disease area. As a next step, check the success rates for the drug's own therapy area.

Score the candidate

Score each criterion from 1 to 5. A 2 or a 4 sits between the descriptions.

Structuring

1: No clear structure, or a memorized framework that does not fit the problem.
3: A sensible structure, but with some overlap, a gap, or no clear priority.
5: A structure built for this problem, with no overlap and no gaps, a stated hypothesis, and a clear first step.

Math

1: Frequent errors, no units, or needed heavy help to finish.
3: Right answers but slow or messy working, or one error caught late.
5: Accurate and clearly narrated, with units, a sense check, and what the number means.

Exhibit reading

1: Read the chart aloud without finding the number that matters.
3: Found the key number but gave only part of the so-what.
5: Pulled the right number quickly and said what it means for the case.

Synthesis

1: Summarized what was done, with no clear answer.
3: Gave an answer, but with weak reasons or no next step.
5: Answer first, then two or three reasons with numbers, the main risk, and next steps.

Communication

1: Hard to follow: long silences, no signposting.
3: Clear most of the time, with some rambling.
5: Calm and concise, signposted each step, and checked in with the interviewer.

Total

0 out of 25

Score all five criteria to see the band and the feedback template.