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Patient funnel: a diabetes treatment in Saudi Arabia

You run the case. Read the prompt, answer questions from the notes below, and share data only when the candidate asks for it or gets stuck. Score at the end.

Case timer

00:00

Target length:

1. Read the prompt aloud

Read it slowly, then pause. Let the candidate ask questions before they structure.

A fictional company asks how many patients in Saudi Arabia could use its new type 2 diabetes treatment. Use these rounded assumptions for the exercise: about 35 million people, 70 percent adults, 20 percent of adults with diabetes, 60 percent of those diagnosed, 70 percent of diagnosed patients treated with medicines, and 10 percent of treated patients with the profile the drug targets. How many target patients is that?

2. Answers to clarifying questions

This case has no scripted clarifying answers. Answer from the prompt, and say "assume what you think is reasonable" if the prompt does not cover it.

3. A model structure

Compare the candidate's structure with this one. A different split can be just as good if it is clean and fits the problem.

Patient funnel
- Population x adults
- x prevalence of diabetes
- x diagnosed
- x treated with medicines
- Key: x target profile

4. The working, step by step

Each step shows how a strong candidate works it out. Share a new fact from it only when the candidate asks or is stuck, and let them do the math: the result in the dark box is what they should reach.

Step 1: Adults
What a strong candidate does: 70 percent of 35 million.
Adults (millions): 35 × 0.7 = 24.5
Step 2: With diabetes
What a strong candidate does: 20 percent of adults.
Adults with diabetes (millions): 24.5 × 0.2 = 4.9
Step 3: Diagnosed and treated
What a strong candidate does: 60 percent diagnosed, then 70 percent treated.
Treated with medicines (millions): 4.9 × 0.6 × 0.7 = 2.06
Step 4: Target patients
What a strong candidate does: 10 percent of treated patients.
Target patients: 35,000,000 × 0.7 × 0.2 × 0.6 × 0.7 × 0.1 = 205,800

The recommendation to listen for

At the end, say: "The CEO walks in. What is your recommendation?"

The company should plan around about 206,000 target patients in Saudi Arabia, because the funnel narrows sharply from 35 million people. First, of 4.9 million adults with diabetes, only about 2.06 million are diagnosed and treated with medicines. Second, only 10 percent of those fit the profile the drug targets. The risk is that payers limit uptake, since the government pays for citizens and employers insure private-sector staff. As a next step, test the price payers will accept and how the drug compares with the many diabetes medicines already available.

Score the candidate

Score each criterion from 1 to 5. A 2 or a 4 sits between the descriptions.

This case has no exhibit. Score Exhibit reading on how the candidate used the data you gave them: did they pick out the number that matters and say what it means?

Structuring

1: No clear structure, or a memorized framework that does not fit the problem.
3: A sensible structure, but with some overlap, a gap, or no clear priority.
5: A structure built for this problem, with no overlap and no gaps, a stated hypothesis, and a clear first step.

Math

1: Frequent errors, no units, or needed heavy help to finish.
3: Right answers but slow or messy working, or one error caught late.
5: Accurate and clearly narrated, with units, a sense check, and what the number means.

Exhibit reading

1: Read the chart aloud without finding the number that matters.
3: Found the key number but gave only part of the so-what.
5: Pulled the right number quickly and said what it means for the case.

Synthesis

1: Summarized what was done, with no clear answer.
3: Gave an answer, but with weak reasons or no next step.
5: Answer first, then two or three reasons with numbers, the main risk, and next steps.

Communication

1: Hard to follow: long silences, no signposting.
3: Clear most of the time, with some rambling.
5: Calm and concise, signposted each step, and checked in with the interviewer.

Total

0 out of 25

Score all five criteria to see the band and the feedback template.