Interviewer view · keep this screen to yourself
How many hotel rooms for a Gulf visitor target?
You run the case. Read the prompt, answer questions from the notes below, and share data only when the candidate asks for it or gets stuck. Score at the end.
Case timer
00:00
1. Read the prompt aloud
Read it slowly, then pause. Let the candidate ask questions before they structure.
A Gulf country wants to grow international visitors from 10 million to 25 million a year by 2030. The exhibit shows today's position and the ministry's planning assumptions. How many hotel rooms are needed, and how big is the gap?
Format note: Interviewer-led: the interviewer gives the exhibit and asks for the sizing, then the recommendation.
2. Answers to clarifying questions
Give these answers only if the candidate asks. If they ask something not listed, give a sensible answer or say it does not matter here.
If asked: Do all visitors stay in hotels?
Answer: About 60 percent do; the rest stay with friends, family, or in rented apartments.
If asked: Is demand even across the year?
Answer: No, there is a strong winter peak; the ministry plans for average occupancy of 70 percent.
If asked: What is already being built?
Answer: About 30,000 rooms due to open by 2030.
3. The hypothesis a strong candidate states
Listen for an early, testable guess like this one. It does not need to match word for word.
Visitors grow two and a half times, so my hypothesis is that hotel rooms, not demand, will limit the target, and that rooms already planned will not be enough.
4. A model structure
Compare the candidate's structure with this one. A different split can be just as good if it is clean and fits the problem.
- Rooms needed = hotel room-nights / (365 x occupancy)
- Hotel guest-nights in 2030
- Key: Room-nights and rooms needed
- Gap after existing and planned rooms
- Sanity check: today's occupancy
Exhibit 1
Reveal to candidate: when they ask for this data, say "Open Exhibit 1" (they press "Show exhibit 1" on their screen).
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| International visitors today (a year) | 10 million |
| Target for 2030 (a year) | 25 million |
| Hotel rooms today | 45,000 |
| Rooms under construction, due by 2030 | 30,000 |
| Share of visitors staying in hotels | 60 percent |
| Average stay | 4 nights |
| Guests per room | 1.8 |
| Planned average occupancy | 70 percent |
So-what
Planned rooms bring the total to 75,000, far short of what 25 million visitors need at these assumptions.
5. The working, step by step
Each step shows how a strong candidate works it out. Share a new fact from it only when the candidate asks or is stuck, and let them do the math: the result in the dark box is what they should reach.
Step 1: Hotel guest-nights
What a strong candidate does: 25 million visitors, 60 percent in hotels, 4 nights each.
Guest-nights a year: 25,000,000 × 0.6 × 4 = 60,000,000
Step 2: Room-nights
What a strong candidate does: About 1.8 guests share a room.
Room-nights a year: 60,000,000 ÷ 1.8 = 33,333,333
Step 3: Rooms needed
What a strong candidate does: Each room offers 365 nights a year, filled 70 percent of the time on average.
Rooms needed: 60,000,000 ÷ 1.8 ÷ (365 × 0.7) = 130,463
Step 4: Gap after existing and planned rooms
What a strong candidate does: Subtract today's 45,000 rooms and the 30,000 under construction.
Rooms still needed: 60,000,000 ÷ 1.8 ÷ (365 × 0.7) - 45,000 - 30,000 = 55,463
Step 5: Per year
What a strong candidate does: Spread over the four years left to 2030.
Extra rooms a year: (60,000,000 ÷ 1.8 ÷ (365 × 0.7) - 45,000 - 30,000) ÷ 4 = 13,866
Step 6: Total openings a year
What a strong candidate does: Counting the 30,000 rooms already under construction, this many rooms must open each year.
Rooms opening a year, including the pipeline: (60,000,000 ÷ 1.8 ÷ (365 × 0.7) - 45,000) ÷ 4 = 21,366
Step 7: Sanity check: today's occupancy
What a strong candidate does: With the same assumptions, today's 10 million visitors fill about 81 percent of today's rooms, which is already high. The market is tight now, so the room gap is real.
Today's occupancy (%): 10,000,000 × 0.6 × 4 ÷ 1.8 ÷ (45,000 × 365) × 100 = 81.18
Step 8: Sensitivity: spreading demand
What a strong candidate does: If events and pricing lift average occupancy to 75 percent, fewer rooms are needed.
Rooms needed at 75 percent: 60,000,000 ÷ 1.8 ÷ (365 × 0.75) = 121,766
The recommendation to listen for
At the end, say: "The CEO walks in. What is your recommendation?"
The target needs about 130,000 hotel rooms, so even after the 30,000 under construction the country is about 55,000 rooms short, roughly 13,900 extra rooms a year over the four years to 2030. First, today's hotels are already about 81 percent full, so demand is not the constraint. Second, counting the pipeline, about 21,000 rooms would have to open every year, a very fast rate, so the state cannot do it alone: speed up approvals and offer land or fee incentives to private developers. Third, spreading demand across the year through events and off-season pricing reduces the need: at 75 percent average occupancy about 122,000 rooms are enough. Also grow licensed short-term rentals to raise the share of visitors outside hotels.
Risks a strong answer names: Developers may not build fast enough even with incentives; Oversupply if visitor growth falls short; Staffing 55,000 new rooms needs many trained workers.
Next steps: Set yearly room-opening KPIs and track approvals; Design developer incentives and a short-term rental licensing scheme; Plan the hospitality workforce needed.
Strong versus weak
A strong answer
Converted visitors to rooms step by step, subtracted planned supply, checked today's occupancy, and tested a demand-spreading lever.
A weak answer
Said "build more hotels" without sizing the gap, or forgot the rooms already under construction.
Score the candidate
Score each criterion from 1 to 5. A 2 or a 4 sits between the descriptions.
Total
0 out of 25
Score all five criteria to see the band and the feedback template.